Wissenschaftliche Literatur Stock Markets

Daniel Hartmann

StockMarkets and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data

Schriftenreihe volkswirtschaftliche Forschungsergebnisse

It has been common practice in empirical studies to use revised macroeconomic data that are available to a researcher ex post for the analysis of historical time series. This practice, however, does not take into account that macroeconomic data are revised over time and that theses revisions can be substantial. Results of empirical analyses may change when data available at different periods are used. This raises the question of whether data availability has to be taken…

Burcu Erdogan

Analyzing Convergence/Divergence in European Financial Markets

Schriftenreihe volkswirtschaftliche Forschungsergebnisse

The European Union implemented significant financial reforms in order to facilitate financial integration since the beginning of the 1980s. With the introduction of the euro, the process of integrating financial markets accelerated. All the restructuring efforts reflect an expectation of positive effects from a single financial market in the European Union. However, an interconnected financial system creates challenges as well. It is crucial to investigate the process of…

Georg Bestelmeyer

Equity Markets and the Real Economy

Finanzmanagement

The author analyzes the influence of investors’ macroeconomic expectations on the U.S. equity market by focusing on three central issues: First, “Do investors’ equity risk premia expectations depend on overall business conditions? Hereby, the importance of economic conditions for doubtlessly one of the most essential value drivers of stockmarkets is tackled. The knowledge of how strong the real economic situation influences equity risk premia expectations and thus the…

Achim Friedrich Himmelmann

Innovation Economics: Capital Market Perception of Corporate Innovation Activities

Finanzmanagement

Innovationsaktivitäten von Unternehmen gewinnen in einer zunehmend wissensbasierten Ökonomie immer mehr an Bedeutung. Wettbewerbsvorteile und die Erschließung zukünftiger Erfolgspotentiale hängen entscheidend von der Innovationskraft der Unternehmen ab.

Trotz der wachsenden Bedeutung von Forschungsaktivitäten als wesentlicher Treiber für den Unternehmenserfolg ist die entsprechende Umsetzung in Erfolgsgrößen am Kapitalmarkt bisher nur lückenhaft thematisiert.…

Časlav Božić

Applications of Intelligent Systems for News Analytics in Finance

Studien zur Wirtschaftsinformatik

News articles make a very important information source for traders beacuse news stories reach a huge number of people, and they can initiate massive market movements, like panic selling, or massive buying, but they can also lead to more subtle market movements. With the rise of algorithmic trading volume in recent years, the need for quantifying qualitative information in textual news and incorporating that additional information into new trading algorithms…

Christoph Breig

Asset Pricing and Default Risk

Finanzmanagement

Since several decades, the financial markets price large amounts of money held in securities that face systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Thus, many theoretical and empirical asset pricing papers have addressed issues around the relationship between stockmarkets and systematic risk. Among others the following research topics have been discussed: the predictability of stockmarkets, the impact of economy-wide risk factors on equity returns, the modeling of such risk…

Jürgen Huber

Wahlbörsen: Preisbildung auf politischen Märkten zur Vorhersage von Wahlergebnissen

POLITICA – Schriftenreihe zur politischen Wissenschaft

Anläßlich der US-Präsidentschaftswahl 1988 wurde an der University of Iowa die erste Wahlbörse veranstaltet und überraschte Veranstalter, Teilnehmer und Kommentatoren mit einer Prognose, die zehn mal exakter war als die besten Umfragen.

Bei der nächsten Wahl 1992 wurde wieder ein Markt veranstaltet, wobei das Prognoseergebnis dem Wahlergebnis bis auf 0,06 % nahekam. Damit schien das „Wundermittel“ der Wahlforschung gefunden. Offenbar bringt die Anwendung von…