about this bookdeutsch english Due to economic and political changes in the general framework the European milk market finds itself in an ongoing adaptation process. These structural adaptations in the milk sector lead either to farm dissolution or to a growth of the remaining dairy farms. With this background, the main target of this thesis is to analyse possible scenarios of regional and structural developments in the dairy sector of North Rhine-Westphalia as well as the resulting income effects. For answering the research question a model is designed. The underlying concept is based on the approach of typical farms. In the analysis two arable farm regions and two typical grassland regions are included. The dynamic model simulates the milk sector over a ten year period and considers all substantial processes like milk production, young cattle breeding and fodder production. The different agricultural activities are modeled in sub-modules which are linked through coherent activities. The whole farm population of the dairy farms within a model region is represented by three model farms. The structural development resulting from investments and disinvestment (farm dissolution) in the model farms leads to changes in the farm size structure of a single region. The results show the impact of agricultural policy scenarios as well as of price scenarios on the income and consequently on the structural development of the dairy farms. It appears that especially middle sized farms show a high sensitivity regarding the respective agricultural policy and price scenarios. Conversely, direct payments have an income-protecting effect on the analysed dairy farms. Consequently, a reduction of the direct premiums level from 2013 on would therefore reduce the number of farms even more. According to the calculations in all model regions the number of dairy farms decreases up to about 24% in 2022 compared to 2012. At the same time the number of dairy cows in the respective regions increases. The results point out the fact that dairy farming in the analysed regions will be competitive in future and will be maintained regardless of the structural adaptation processes over time.
keywordsAgrarstrukturwandel Agrarwissenschaft Betriebsaufgabe Einkommensentwicklung Milchmarkt Milchviehhaltung Modell Strukturwandel
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