Forschungsarbeit: Die Ergründung der hybriden Entscheidungstheorie anhand der Prospect-Schule

Die Ergründung der hybriden Entscheidungstheorie anhand der Prospect-Schule

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Studienreihe psychologische Forschungsergebnisse, volume 202

Hamburg , 102 pages

ISBN 978-3-339-13218-5 (print)

ISBN 978-3-339-13219-2 (eBook)

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The most decisions in the social and economic context are not only subject to the cause-effect principle according to the model of “homo oeconomicus”, but also to further conscious and unconscious processes. These processes can have causes such as the asymmetrical distribution of interests, information and risks (principal-agent theory) or cognitive distortions such as the anchor effect, availability and representativeness heuristic, status quo distortion, disposition effect, overconfidence, deception, priming, etc. (prospect school). A single action cannot therefore be predicted, rather certain regularities are determined in economics through repeated observation (area of data mining resp. Business intelligence, e.g. affinity for certain products, travel destinations, etc. or by deriving the behavior of other consumers in the same cluster / to find out the target group).

The aim of this work is to establish a causality between decision anomalies and cognitive biases and social influences. Optimizations of social and consumer decisions in terms of prescriptive decision theory, as a hybrid solution, taking into account individual needs were also researched. The answer of the central research question: "How do cognitive distortions influence decisions about consumption and social behavior?" led to the formulation of the following thesis through the application of inductive methods: A definitive decision is made when you are happy with it (“bounded rationality”). It has been proven theoretically and empirically, that our decisions and our general behavior are very individual and diverse. As a result, general prescriptive or descriptive theories cannot be applied to specific sociodemographic, ethnic, or sexual orientation, affective, or cognitive directed groupings.

The hybrid decision theory is used in the area of behavioral economics such as corporate governance, budgeting, project planning, needs assessment, customer evaluation and addressing, as well as in the social area, in which availability and representativeness heuristics should be avoided as far as possible, in the sense of a prejudice-free and fair global coexistence.

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